India Forex - Forex Trading in India

The Foreign exchange rates in India are updated daily from the data as published by Reserve Bank of India. It covers the currencies – US Dollars, GB Pounds, Euro & Yen.

Closing Forex Rate for the last five days:

India Saturday 27 February 2010: The dollar was under pressure against the euro and slightly rebounded against the yen in Asian trade on Friday after higher US jobless benefit claims clouded the outlook for the world’s largest economy.

The greenback traded slightly higher at 89.24 yen in Tokyo morning trade from 89.09 yen in New York late Thursday. The euro edged up to $1.3566 from $1.3546 and to 121.08 yen from 120.71 yen.

The dollar remained under pressure after the US Labor Department said new claims for jobless benefits had jumped to a three-month high, raising doubts about the strength of the economic recovery.

The seasonally adjusted initial claims in the week ending February 20 rose to 496,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 474,000, the department said.

Dealers also said remarks by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke are weighing on the dollar after he told a House committee that the US economy still needs low interest rate for some time, disappointing some who had expected a more hawkish stand.

“The market has kind of reverted to the more uncertain outlook it had last October-December on the US economy and the timing of the Fed’s exit strategy,” Yasuo Nakayama, manager at Shinkin Central Bank, told Dow Jones Newswires.

“After Bernanke’s comments this week that tightening is still distant, unless we get more positive data, the downward pressure on dollar-yen should remain dominant,” Nakayama added.

The single European currency firmed against major currencies, but dealers said it remained top heavy amid the debt and public deficit crisis afflicting Greece as well as other sovereign credit concerns in the bloc.

India Saturday 27 February 2010: The Indian rupee will this fiscal join the elite league of global currencies like US dollar, British Pound and Euro that have their unique symbols, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Fridaly.

“In the ensuing year, we intend to formalise a symbol for the Indian rupee, which reflects and captures the Indian ethos and culture,” he announced in his Budget speech in Parliament.

“With this, Indian rupee will join the select club of currencies such as the US Dollar, British Pound Sterling, Euro and Japanese Yen that have a clear distinguishing identity,” he said.

While these foreign currencies have their own unique symbols, other than their abbreviations like USD and GBP, Rupee is only referred to by the abbreviation ‘Rs’. Moreover, the same abbreviated forms are also in neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka rupee.

The decision to have a symbol for rupee was taken by the government last year. It was also decided to invite designs from the public for the new symbol. The shortlisted designers would present their designs to a seven-member jury, comprising of officials from the government and RBI as also people from institutes like J J Institute of Applied Art, National Institute of Design, Lalit Kala Akademi and Indira Gandhi National Centre.

EUR/USD : The EUR/USD bias remains neutral in nearest term and the major bearish scenario remains intact. The hourly to daily charts are highly oversold hence in correction mode and retracements towards 1.3640-1.3700 is expected. Selling may not be initiated fresh. Look at higher levels to book exports and short term importers may cover and medium term exp! orters may wait for covers. (EURUSD - 1.3590).Neutral but Oversold.

GBP/USD : The GBPUSD bias remains neutral to bearish in nearest term and we are seeing continuous fall since last 2-3 days due to fundamental forces driving the currency despite resilience in EUR/USD. We may see some upward correction till 1.5390-1.5490 levels where cautious shorts could be initiated. Please note that the weekly and daily charts are oversold and correction seems to be long due. Importers may book covers for short term at 1.51-53 levels. (GBPUSD ? 1.5289).Neutral but Oversold.

USD/JPY :USDJPY is currently trading at 89.30 levels. Upside correction may happen till 92-93 levels. Importers in Yen may look at covers around these levels (weekly trendline). Overall the trend remains strong for yen below 93 levels. (USDJPY- 89.65). Bullish.

AUD/USD : AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.8880 levels. Correction seems to be over for Australian dollar and up move again resumed. Buying on dips remains the strategy. Further bullishness till 0.9000 levels is expected again. (AUDUSD - 0.8880) Bullish.

Gold ! : Gold’s moved up taking support from $1087 levels and holding above $1100 levels. Buying at dips close to 1080-90 levels remains the strategy. (Gold-$1107). (Rangebound to slightly bearish).

Dollar Index : Dollar index has looks to be in slight correction mode and dips around 79.56 levels ! are possible. Nevertheless, such consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 79.56 cluster supports holds (38.2% retracement of 76.60 to 81.34 at 79.52). Break of 81.34 will bring rally resumption towards 82.63 medium term resistance next. Medium term view remains bullish. Buying on dips on the index remains the strategy. (Dollar Index ? 80.60). Bullish above 80 levels.

India Saturday 27 February 2010: The country’s foreign exchange reserves grew by USD 31.5 billion in the first nine months of this fiscal, but credit for two out of every
three of these dollars go to the rupee appreciation.

The Indian currency’s sharp appreciation against dollar — an eyesore for the export sector that has been the main contributor to forex reserves traditionally — contributed USD 20.3 billion or 64.4 per cent to the total accretion in forex reserves till December 2009 in the current fiscal.

The total foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 31.5 billion in 2009-10 fiscal, from USD 252 billion at the end of March 2009 to USD 283.5 billion in December 2009, according to the Economic Survey presented in Parliament today.

The pre-budget document on the country’s economic health added that the actual accretion in forex reserves was, however, only USD 11.2 billion (35.6 per cent of the total increase of USD 31.5 billion), which was mainly due to rise in FDI inflows and investments from foreign institutional investors.

“… accretion of USD 20.3 billion (64.4 per cent) was on account of valuation gain due to weakness of the US dollar against major currencies,” the Survey said.

Rupee has been appreciating against the US dollar in the current fiscal, largely due to signs of economic recovery and revival in FII inflows after March 2009.

India Friday 26 February 2010 : Snapping negative trend of last three days, the Rupee today recovered by ten paise to 46.30 against US Dollar in the opening trade, as against its previous close of 46.40 per USD, on heavy selling of the greenback by bankers, traders at Interbank Foreign Exchange (FOREX) said here.

A narrow osillation was seen in the local unit as it recorded the intra-day high and low at 46.32 and 46.28 per USD respectively.

Due to gain in eqity market, the Rupee improved, traders said.

The Rupee had slashed by 18 paise in the last three days.

Most Asian units were stronger compared to the dollar.

The dollar index against six majors was down 0.2 per cent.

Indian shares were trading up 0.19 per cent.

India Friday 26 February 2010 : The rupee has strengthened against the USD as the rupee USD exchange rate appreciated to Rs. 46.64 per dollar on January 1, 2010, which was Rs. 50.95 per dollar in end-March 2009.

The Indian rupee has appreciated by 9.2 per cent over its March 31, 2009 level, says Economic Survey 2009-10 presented in Parliament by Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday.

This has been attributed to significant turnaround in FIIinflows, continued inflows under FDI and NRI deposits, better macroeconomic performance of the Indian economy and weakening of the USUSD in international markets.

The foreign exchange reserves have increased by USUSD 31.5 billion during the period April to December 2009. The level of foreign exchange reserves stood at USUSD 283.5 billion compared to USUSD 252.0 billion at the end of March 2009.

India’s Balance of Payment (BoP) exhibited considerable resilience during fiscal 2008-09 despite one of the severest external shocks.

During the fiscal 2009-10, the net invisibles surplus i.e. invisibles receipts minus invisibles payments stood lower at USUSD 39.6 billion during April-September 2009 registering a sign of overall improvement in Balance of Payment scenario during the first half of 2009-10 over the corresponding period 2008-09.

The current account deficit increased to USUSD 18.6 billion in April-September 2009, despite lower trade deficit as compared to USUSD 15.8 billion in April-September 2008, mainly due to lower net invisible surplus.

During the first half of 2009-10 total external debt increased by USUSD 18.2 billion i.e. 8.1 per cent to USUSD 242.8 billion. In rupee turms the external debt stands at Rs. 1.166.217crore. Long-term debt posted an increase of USUSD 19.2 billion to stand at USUSD 200.4 billion while short-term debt fell by USUSD 985 million and stood at USUSD 42.4 billion.

The Economic Survey 2009-10 however has recognized the interest rates at their historic low in most advanced economies as one of the major challenges. With this the possibility of larger capital flows from these countries into the fast growing Asian economies including India is stated to pose the risk of overheating the economy by excess inflows over the domestic absorptive capacity.

India Friday 26 February 2010 : Following are the indicative currency notes and travellers cheques buying and selling rates per unit as given by Thomas Cook India.

(Figures in Rupees) ——————— Currencies Buy Sell US Dollar 43.60 48.75 Sterling Pound 66.85 74.15 Euro 59.10 65.90 Australian Dollar 39.25 43.25 Bahrain Dinar 114.70 130.70 Canadian Dollar 40.60 45.70 Danish Kroner 07.70 09.00 Egyptian Pound 06.10 08.75 Hong Kong Dollar 05.45 06.45 Japanese Yen/100 48.45 53.90 Jordan Dinar 58.05 67.25 Kuwait Dinar 136.15 162.25 Malaysian Ringgit 12.20 14.80 New Zealand Dollar 29.60 34.15 Norwegian Kroner 07.15 08.30 Omani Rial 112.30 127.80 Qatar Rial 11.85 13.60 Saudi Rial 11.50 13.25 Singapore Dollar 30.10 35.25 South African Rand 05.25 06.35 Swedish Kroner 05.90 06.85 Swiss Francs 40.25 46.30 Syrian Pound 00.35 01.05 Thai Baht/100 128.65 151.65 UAE Dirham 11.80 13.35 Chinese Yuan 04.95 07.70.

India Friday 26 February 2010 - In its efforts to improve foreign exchange reserves, India has now become the 10th largest gold-holding nation in the world. It has also emerged as the fourth-largest foreign exchange reserves holder only after China, Japan and Russia, says the Economic Survey 2009-10.

“In September last, the International Monetary Fund decided to sell 403.3 tonnes of gold as a central element of its ‘New Income Model’ and to increase its resources for lending to low-income countries.

“Consequent of this, the Reserve Bank of India concluded the purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF at the cost of $6.7 billion as part of its foreign exchange reserves management operation,” the survey says.

“With this purchase, gold holdings in the country’s foreign exchange reserves have increased from 357.7 tonnes to 557.7 tonnes, which is about 6 per cent of the reserves. Post-purchase, India has become the 10th largest official gold-holding country in the world,” it adds.

In another interesting development, India is ranked fourth in terms of foreign exchange reserves at $283.5 billion, only behind China ($2,399.2 billion), Japan ($1,049.4 billion) and Russia ($439 billion), says the Economic Survey.

India Friday 26 February 2010: Fitch Ratings has said that Bharti Airtel’s long-term foreign currency rating could be downgraded following the company’s announcement of a potential acquisition of Zain’s African operations for an enterprise value of $10.7 billion.

“Fitch expects the ratings to be downgraded by one notch assuming that the deal is completed and substantially debt funded, as this would increase Bharti’s funds from operations (FFO) adjusted net leverage ratio to a level inconsistent with the current rating,” the rating agency said in a statement.

Bharti’s debt is rated by Fitch as ‘BBB minus’ which places it at the bottom of the so-called investment grade. The rating symbol BBB minus indicates that the company has adequate capacity to pay.

The category below investment grade is the ‘speculative’ or ‘junk’ category; territory that companies like to stay away from. A downgrade by Fitch would mean that Bharti’s foreign debt would be dubbed as speculative, meaning that it may or may not be able to pay.

Amit Tandon, head of Fitch India, said the agency would seek clarification from Bharti once its funding plans became clearer. Bharti Airtel’s spokesman said the company did not comment on actions of rating agencies. The move comes five days after rating agencies Crisil and Standard & Poor’s placed Bharti’s long-term bank facilities and debt programme on ‘rating watch with negative implications’ or RWN.

In the press statement, Fitch said in the event of a downgrade, the rating could be under further downward pressure reflecting the potential costs associated with any bid for a 3G licence and related capex. However, Fitch will seek to resolve the matter once the funding mix for the acquisition is finalised, which according to the company’s announcement, is expected by March-end.

“In resolving RWN, Fitch will also seek clarification on the terms and conditions of the acquisition of debt and also confirm whether all required regulatory approvals are likely to be obtained.

Further, the agency will take into consideration the financial profile of the combined entity and its future business plans when resolving RWN,” it said.

The rating takes into account the uncertainties surrounding the targeted turnaround of the loss-making operations of Zain’s African assets, which reported a y-o-y decline of 11% and 16% in revenues and EBITDA, respectively, in the nine months of FY09 and a net loss of $37 million during the same period.

The RWN also considers the geographical diversification of Bharti’s subscriber portfolio on completion of the deal and its expansion in Africa, where many markets are characterised by high subscriber growth, higher average revenue per users (ARPUs average $8) and low telecom penetration rates, the average being 34%, excluding Ghana.

“However, Fitch also notes that the combined entity would be prone to geo-political and currency uncertainties,” it added.