India Forex - Forex Trading in India

India Friday 30 July 2010 -The rupee touched its highest in nearly a month on Thursday, as stronger domestic stocks raised expectations of more capital inflows and the euro’s rise prompted exporters to sell dollars.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 46.53/54 per dollar, off an intra-day high of 46.52, its strongest since July 2 and around 0.5% higher than Wednesday’s close of 46.75/76. The one-year onshore dollar premium rose to its highest in two years after a senior RBI official said current policy rates will not tame inflation and aggressive action is needed.

The one-year premium was at 186 points. Sharp rate hikes in India would further widen the interest rate differential between India and other developed economies, helping attract more capital inflows and boosting the rupee. RBI on Tuesday raised interest rates more forcefully than anticipated to combat price pressures in Asia’s third-biggest economy, and signalled more policy tightening in the coming months.

The dollar’s weakness overseas also triggered fresh supply in the market due to selling by exporters. The dollar touched a 11-week low against the euro and was down 1.2% versus the Swiss franc. The dollar index was 0.6% down against six major currencies at the time of the local market’s close.

One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were quoted at 46.69, weaker than onshore spot rate. In the currency futures market, the most traded near-month dollar-rupee contracts on NSE and MCX-SX ended at 46.7375 and 46.7475, respectively, with the total traded volume on the two exchanges at around $3.6 billion.

India Friday 30 July 2010 - Despite a dip in revenues, Great Eastern Shipping today reported 11 per cent jump in net profit at Rs 171.80 crore on foreign currency gains during the quarter ended June 30, 2010, over the same period last fiscal.

The company had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 154.17 crore during the same quarter of 2009-10.
GE Shipping’s consolidated revenues, however, were down 18.9 per cent at Rs 688 crore during the April-June quarter this fiscal, as against Rs 840 crore in Q1 of FY10.

“Gain on foreign currency transactions (net) for the quarter ended June 30, 2010 includes a non-cash gain of Rs 40.47 crore on revaluation of the outstanding foreign currency bank balances and debtors/creditors,” the company said in a filing to the stock exchanges.

In the same quarter last year, the company had recorded a loss of Rs 92.99 crore, the company statement added.

GE Shipping’s offshore services unit Greatship (India) Ltd has filed a draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with market regulator Securities and Exchanges Board (Sebi) to raise up to $100 million by selling 22.05 million shares in an initial public offering.

India Thursday 29 July 2010 : Following were the indicative currency notes and travellers cheques buying and selling rates per unit today as given by Thomas Cook India Ltd.

(Figures in Rupees) ——————— Currencies Buy Sell US Dollar 44.00 49.15 Sterling Pound 68.90 76.45 Euro 57.05 63.60 Australian Dollar 39.85 43.90 Bahrain Dinar 115.45 131.75 Canadian Dollar 41.90 47.15 Danish Kroner 07.45 08.65 Egyptian Pound 05.95 08.50 Hongkong Dollar 05.50 06.50 Japanese Yen(100) 50.05 55.70 Jordan Dinar 58.55 67.85 Kuwait Dinar 137.80 164.20 Malayasian Ringgit 13.10 15.90 New Zealand Dollar 31.15 35.95 Norwegian Kroner 06.95 08.05 Oman Rial 113.20 128.85 Qatar Rial 11.95 13.70 Saudi Rial 11.60 13.40 Singapore Dollar 31.30 36.65 South African Rand 05.55 06.70 Swedish Kroner 05.85 06.75 Swiss Franc 41.40 47.60 Syrian Pound 00.35 01.05 Thai Baht(per100) 132.95 156.70 UAE Dirham 11.90 13.45 Chinese Yuan 05.00 07.80

India Thursday 29 July 2010 : The rupee today bounced back by six paise to 46.69 against US Dollar in the opening session, against its previous close of 46.75, on fresh capital inflows by foreign funds and weak Dollar against other currencies, traders at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (FOREX) said.

An oscillation was seen in the local unit as it recorded the intra day’s low and high at 46.64 and 46.71 per US Dollar respectively.

The lacklustre trading in equity market restricted the rupee’s gain, they added.

The rupee had slipped by ten paise to 46.75 per US Dollar yesterday.

India Thursday 29 July 2010: Private sector lender IndusInd Bank today said that it has received a mandate from the Haj Committee of India for distributing Saudi Riyal currency notes among all government-sponsored Haj pilgrims.

This is the second time that the bank has bid for this mandate, IndusInd Bank said in a statement.

It is estimated that this year, nearly 115,000 pilgrims will leave for Haj from India under the government quota. Apart from this, another 50,000 pilgrims are expected to go to Saudi Arabia from India under private quota, it said.

IndusInd Bank has emerged as a significant player in retail remittances, especially on payments coming from Middle-East countries, it said.

The bank works closely with over 45 partner exchange houses and banks for India-bound payments, it added.

India Wednesday 28 July 2010 : The rupee today declined by seven paise to 46.72 per US dollar, against its last close of 46.65, in the opening trade, on the dollar’s gains against other major currencies, traders at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (FOREX) said.

A narrow movement was seen in the domestic unit as it recorded the intra day’s low and high at 46.68 and 46.74 against the US currency.

Currently, it was trading at 46.71 per US Dollar. The lackluster trading in euqity market and month-end dollar demand from importers put pressure on the rupee, traders informed.

The domestic unit had surged by 40 paise to 46.65/66 a dollar in the previous session.

India Wednesday 28 July 2010 : Following were the indicative currency notes and travellers cheques buying and selling rates per unit today as given by Thomas Cook India Ltd.

(Figures in Rupees) ——————— Currencies Buy Sell US Dollar 44.05 49.25 Sterling Pound 68.90 76.50 Euro 57.10 63.70 Australian Dollar 39.85 43.95 Bahrain Dinar 115.60 132.00 Canadian Dollar 41.95 47.25 Danish Kroner 07.45 08.70 Egyptian Pound 05.95 08.55 Hongkong Dollar 05.50 06.50 Japanese Yen(100) 49.70 55.35 Jordan Dinar 58.50 67.75 Kuwait Dinar 138.00 164.45 Malayasian Ringgit 13.15 15.95 New Zealand Dollar 31.45 36.35 Norwegian Kroner 06.95 08.05 Oman Rial 113.40 129.05 Qatar Rial 11.95 13.70 Saudi Rial 11.60 13.40 Singapore Dollar 31.40 36.75 South African Rand 05.60 06.75 Swedish Kroner 05.85 06.80 Swiss Franc 41.30 47.55 Syrian Pound 00.35 01.05 Thai Baht(per100) 133.35 157.15 UAE Dirham 11.90 13.50 Chinese Yuan 05.00 07.85

Forex Asia Closing Highlights

- China: State Information Center reported that exports may gain 16.3% y/y in H2; imports 19.3% y/y; trade surplus to see $97.8 bln.

- China: PBoC deputy governor Hu Xiaolian said that moderate yuan moves can help to adjust trade and international payment unbalances while a more flexible yuan can help make China’s monetary policy more effective. He added that yuan adjustments have helped to ease imported inflation pressure and restrain asset bubbles.

- Singapore/ Malaysia/ India: Indian Fortis Healthcare accepted Malaysian state fund Khazanah’s offer of S$3.95/sh, amounting to SGD 3.5bln ($2.6bln) to buy out the remaining part of Singapore’s Parkway Holdings Ltd.; Fortis plans to sell its 25% stake in the Singapore-based firm to Khazanah. Said it would make S$116.7mln profit from Parkway sale.

- Singapore: June manufacturing output rose a softer than expected 26.1% y/y (May: 58.4% y/y); ex-Biomed +24.8% y/y (May: 29.9% y/y).

- Indonesia: BI Governor Nasution said that full year growth is seen at 5.9%; rupiah at 9200 to the dollar in 2010 and that inflation will be at the upper end of the 4-6% r ange.

- Indonesia: FinMin estimated full year GDP at 5.9%, more optimistic than the official govt forecast of 5.8%; H1 at 5.8% and H2 at 6%. FinMin added that H2 will see higher inflation, slower exports and marginally stronger investment. 2010 budget deficit is seen at 1.5% of GDP.

- Philippines: Highlights of President Aquino’s State of the Nation Address: Said will ask Congress to pass the ‘fiscal responsibility’ law that will require a revenue source for every legislation that calls for some kind of spending. Might cut some corporate tax breaks. Acknowledged renewed interests from private groups to improve infrastructure, with minimal budget support from the government; said supports partnerships with private sector.

- Philippines: BSP Gov expects July CPI to range within 3.5-4.4% on lower fuel costs and rice prices; added that the inflation outlook remains manageable.

- Philippines: Philippine stock exchange cautioned that the stock index i.e. PSI reading was incorrect after the exchange launched a new trading system today; index had surged 14%+ in pre-lunch trades; new data to be loaded after market hours.

- Philippines: Treasurer Tan said was reviewing issuance of retail treasury bonds in Aug; might raise < PHP 100bln ($2.2bln). Added that the Treasury has received proposals for peso and solar bond swaps.

- Philippines: Private pollster Pulse Asia's survey showed that President Aquino had record levels of public trust, with over 85% of the respondents supportive of the Preside nt.

- Philippines: Budget Secy Abad added that the administration only had 38% of the 2010 budget left, making it very difficult to adhere to 2010 deficit goal. Estimated PHP 100bn could be reallocated to meet social services and education spending requirements.

- India: Credit ratings agency Moody's upgraded the local bond ratings for India by one notch to 'Ba1' from 'Ba2'; foreign currency bond ratings were affirmed at 'Baa3'; credit outlook for foreign and local currency bonds have remained put at 'Stable' and 'Positive' respectively.

- Japan's Your Party chief Yoshimi Watanabe says Japan govt needs to weaken JPY, more BoJ easing and undertake expansionary fiscal policy to beat deflation.

- Australia: PM Julia Gillard has dismissed the need for a second leaders debate with Tony Abbott despite saying election remains a "tough, close contest". Commentators were split over who won the head-to-head match-up. - Daily Teleg raph

USD/Majors: EUR rallied to 1.2955+ highs as the Sterling hit 1.55-levels and as the AUD tested 0.8990 fuelled by risk-on moves. Sovereign buyers were cited along with interest in the market to take out options above, but momentum did not last. S&P futures turning lower along with EUR coupons and redemption being watched knocked the EUR off the highs and the tumble also dragged the GBP and AUD - albeit to a lesser extent than the EUR which was at the bottom of the pack. EUR was pressured below 1.29-figure while GBP and AUD consolidated sub-1.5480 and 0.8080-ish levels respectively. Sovereign sellers, including Asian names were on the offer for the EUR/USD.

JPY Crosses: came under selling pressure in early European hours today; risk appetites showing signs of pullback added to the downtrend as well. EUR/JPY was further weighed by JPY repatriation on French BTAN/ OAT coupons and redemption due today. AUD/JPY extended slippage from morning trades on speculation of RBA pause. Nikkei closed off highs at +0.77% as regional bourses trimmed gains into Asia close.

USD/Asians: USD/AXJ bounced off lows rather swiftly as EUR's late afternoon rally fizzled out (last seen sub-1.29 terrain), weighed by assorted offers (mainly a large Asian name also known for as user of big option structures) and as concerns over the nuances in EU stress tests revived risk-off interests on the margin. Equities also narrowed gains near close, with few still-open indices extending slip into red.

Oil weighed on global recovery concerns again. Crude oil last traded at $78.60/bbl.

Gold recovered a tad from overnight lows on speculation about physical demand. Spot gold trading at $1190.65-1191.65/oz at last indication.

NORTH ASIA
USD/KRW: Intervention-type of moves put the brakes on USD/KRW bears that were headed for a break below the 1190-handle; integrity of the level remained and trades ended a tad above 1191.

USD/CNY: Spot prices continued to trade near the 6.78-figure into closing; 1-year NDFs came off 6.68-ish lows into Asia close as dollar slump eased.

USD/HKD: Pair bounced off lows to 7.7665+ as stocks gave up part early gains and dollar index steadied.

USD/TWD: The pairing slipped below the 32.100-mark in afternoon trades on the soggy dollar and bounced to close at 32.120 on dollar recovery and suspected intervention.

SOUTH ASIA
USD/SGD: Good US names on the offer saw USD/SGD hitting 1.3626 lows but bounced off as EUR stumbled off 1.2958 highs.

USD/MYR: bit of a bounce in the USD/MYR in sympathy with the USD/SGD as risk appetite at the margin waned; MYR gave back some of the gains against the SGD.

USD/IDR: Prices softened to 9030-ish levels in pm trades on the dollar slippage though stock losses kept downsides checked.

USD/PHP: Prices slipped to 46.12 lows on return from lunch as EUR was buoyed by early European offers, though USD/PHP got off its back to close at 46.145 as EUR bounce faded. Stock index was down on technical issues, with market data expected to be uploaded after trading hours.

USD/THB: Markets were closed for Asarna Bucha Day; normal trades resume tomorrow.

USD/INR: Whippy moves as pair dribbled to 46.81 lows in wake of EUR’s late afternoon rally, though with SENSEX deepening slide and EUR off highs, USD/INR shot higher to 46.99 highs; last seen at 46.96.

India Tuesday 27 July 2010: The Indian rupee gained 18 paise to 46.86 against the US dollar in early trade on the Interbank Foreign Exchange today amid a fall in the value of the American currency against its major rivals.

Capital inflows by foreign funds into equities, too, supported the rupee sentiment.

The rupee had closed 11 paise lower at 47.04/05 against the dollar in yesterday’s volatile session.

Forex dealers said apart from dollar losses overseas against a basket of currencies, foreign capital inflows into Indian markets also provided support to the rupee.

However, the cautious approach exercised by investors ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy review, which is scheduled later in the day, restricted the gains.

Meanwhile, the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex rose by 57.09 points, or 0.31 per cent, to 18,077.14 points in opening trade today.

India Monday 26 July 2010: The rupee was largely steady in early trade on Monday holding near recent 1-week highs tracking a seesawing local share market with traders watching the dollar’s moves versus majors for further direction.

At 9:15 am the partially convertible rupee was at 46.92/93 per dollar, little above its Friday’s close of 46.94/95, when it had risen as high as 46.8925, its strongest since July 16. So far the rupee has traded in a range of 46.90 to 46.9550. Markets opened down 0.2 percent but soon turned positive. The euro kept to a tight range in Asian trade, with some scepticism about the credibility of the euro zone’s stress tests on its banking sector keeping investors sidelined.

The index of the dollar against six major currencies was little changed and would be watched for cues, dealers said. The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday.

Rate hikes could temporarily hurt the rupee if stocks fall, but in the long run would help the rupee gain due to the interest rate differential.